Matchup Analysis
Nov 20 2008, 09:00 AM
Packers RB Ryan Grant has a favorable matchup in Week 12.
Contributed by: Andrew Goldhawk
This is a critical week for fantasy football owners. Most trading deadlines have passed or are here and the playoffs are only one or two weeks away. Now is the time of year you can’t afford to get cute with your lineup decisions and bench the wrong guy.
After some strong weeks, I had a down week of picking players in Week 11. Let’s see exactly how good (or bad) those players were:
Grades
Players with a Beneficial Match up in Week 11:
QBs
Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears: 23/30, 227 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Grade: B
Rodgers re-established his strong play after a couple outings to forget. With the re-emergence of Ryan Grant in the running game, expect defenses to key less on Rodgers and the passing game. He remains an elite option.
Matt Ryan vs. Broncos: 20/33, 250 yards, 1 INT. Grade F
Ryan reminded us he is a rookie QB this week. Going against one of the worst defenses in the league, Ryan couldn’t muster up a TD. Roddy White did drop a tough end zone catch late in the fourth quarter which was beautifully thrown by Ryan. The Falcons had a smart game plan of feeding the ball to Turner on the ground to control the time of possession and it almost worked for them.
RBs
Steve Slaton vs. Colts: 14 carries, 156 yards, 1 TD. Grade: A
Slaton continues his impressive rookie campaign. He once again thrashed the Colts including a 71 yard TD run. Look for the Texans to continue to limit his touches to avoid him wearing down. It looks like, while he is healthy, Ahman Green will be the short yardage back.
Larry Johnson vs. Saints: 19 carries, 67 yards, 1 rec., 20 yards. Grade: C
LJ had a decent game back from a month off but the one disappointing thing was his numerous failed attempts to get in the end zone from inside the five yard line. On the plus side he received more carries then Herm Edwards said he would. I expect him to finish the year as a RB2 in good matchups and at worst a good flex option.
WRs
Terrell Owens vs. Redskins: 5 rec., 38 yards. Grade: D
The return of Romo was great for the team and Marion Barber but he obviously wasn’t 100%. Even still, Owens performed better then he did with Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger under center. Expect a good game next week against the 49ers, his former team.
Lee Evans vs. Browns: Goose egg. Grade: F
This is mind boggling. Evans had been so consistent and was even getting into the end zone without the aid of the long ball until two weeks ago. Trent Edwards hasn’t been the same since a concussion he suffered against Arizona early in the year. Play Evans as a WR3 and nothing more.
Players with Unfavorable Match-ups in Week 11:
QBs
Kerry Collins vs. Jaguars: 13/23, 230 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. Grade: F
I completely missed on this one. I thought for sure the Titans would re-establish a dominant running game against a mediocre run defense, which would limit Collins. Obviously I was wrong. If teams continue to stack the box and force Collins to beat them, he could become a decent fantasy option if you lack a superstar at the position.
Chad Pennington vs. Raiders: 16/22, 174 yards. Grade: A
Pennington is a much better real QB then fantasy QB. He doesn’t usually put up huge stats but he leads his teams to wins. He’s a solid backup fantasy QB but don’t put your team’s hopes in his hands.
RBs
Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Titans: 17 carries, 66 yards, 2 TD, 3 rec., 27 yards. Grade: F
The Jags finally decided to continue to run the ball and it almost resulted in a win over the unbeaten Titans. Jones-Drew now has five TDs in his past two games. Despite a tough matchup this week against the Vikings he’s a must-start.
LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Steelers: 18 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD, 3 rec., 40 yards. Grade: D
LT wasn’t expected to do much vs. a great Steelers defense. While he didn’t find much room to run, he contributed a TD and in the passing game. This is the exact reasons why you don’t sit your studs unless you have a comparable option.
WRs
Ted Ginn Jr. vs. Raiders: 2 carries, 42 yards, 1 TD, 4 rec., 51 yards. Grade: F
Ginn got most of his value on the ground including the TD run but didn’t have a horrible game catching the ball either. He could be a nice sleeper down the road in a favorable matchup.
Plaxico Burress vs. Ravens: 3 rec., 47 yards. Grade: B
Burress is just not producing and if you have solid WRs I wouldn’t hesitate to bench Plax. Part of the problem is Burress himself, while the other is the dominant run game forcing Eli to throw the ball a minimal amount of times. Even when he throws the ball, he is spreading it out to his other WRs and TEs.
Match-ups will always determine fantasy games so be wise and do not ignore them. Just remember that sitting your studs for a lesser player is never advised no matter what the match-up is. Let’s take a look at Week 12’s match ups:
Strength of Schedule Rankings: Week 12
|
TEAM
|
OPP RUSH DEF
|
TEAM
|
OPP PASS DEF
|
|
BUCS
|
32
|
COLTS
|
32
|
|
BILLS
|
31
|
REDSKINS
|
31
|
|
BRONCOS
|
30
|
RAMS
|
30
|
|
BEARS
|
29
|
RAIDERS
|
29
|
|
TEXANS
|
28
|
TITANS
|
28
|
|
SAINTS
|
27
|
BILLS
|
27
|
|
RAIDERS
|
26
|
PACKERS
|
26
|
|
CHARGERS
|
25
|
COWBOYS
|
25
|
|
BROWNS
|
24
|
BEARS
|
24
|
|
STEELERS
|
23
|
BUCS
|
23
|
|
PANTHERS
|
22
|
PANTHERS
|
22
|
|
REDSKINS
|
21
|
JAGS
|
21
|
|
VIKINGS
|
20
|
PATS
|
20
|
|
PACKERS
|
19
|
TEXANS
|
19
|
|
CHIEFS
|
18
|
VIKINGS
|
18
|
|
FALCONS
|
17
|
BROWNS
|
17
|
|
COWBOYS
|
16
|
GIANTS
|
16
|
|
49ERS
|
15
|
STEELERS
|
15
|
|
COLTS
|
14
|
DOLPHINS
|
14
|
|
DOLPHINS
|
13
|
CHIEFS
|
13
|
|
LIONS
|
12
|
BRONCOS
|
12
|
|
RAVENS
|
11
|
RAVENS
|
11
|
|
JETS
|
10
|
SEAHAWKS
|
10
|
|
PATS
|
9
|
CHARGERS
|
9
|
|
CARDS
|
8
|
EAGLES
|
8
|
|
GIANTS
|
7
|
49ERS
|
7
|
|
RAMS
|
6
|
JETS
|
6
|
|
SEAHAWKS
|
5
|
FALCONS
|
5
|
|
TITANS
|
4
|
LIONS
|
4
|
|
EAGLES
|
3
|
SAINTS
|
3
|
|
JAGS
|
2
|
CARDS
|
2
|
|
BENGALS
|
1
|
BENGALS
|
1
|
Players with a Beneficial Match up in Week 12:
QBs
Eli Manning vs. Cardinals: I just said what needs to happen for the Giants passing game to become for fantasy relevant. This could be the week that happens. The Cardinals will score a bunch and actually have a decent run defense, currently 7th against the rush. There is also a possibility Brandon Jacobs will miss the game or be limited which would result on the team leaning on the passing game more.
Sage Rosenfels vs. Browns: Yep, I said it. Rosenfels has struggled since taking the starting job from an injured Matt Schaub but I think he’ll turn it around this week. Calling the Browns defense “porous” is a compliment. While the Browns have been better against the pass than the run the Texans defense will be sure to make this a high scoring game. So if you have limited options at QB take a chance on Sage. Note: weather could play a factor in this game since it is in Cleveland so keep an eye on that.
RBs
Ryan Grant vs. Saints: He’s baaaaaaaaaaaack!!! Maybe Grant needs eight games to get warmed up. If you were able to acquire Grant cheaply or held onto him then you may have yourself one of the top RBs for the rest of the year. He has a great matchup this week on MNF and I expect another solid performance.
Matt Forte vs. Rams: If you are in a PPR league Forte is a must start since he is the current top scoring RB. Even in if you don’t get a PPR he’s probably a must start unless you are absolutely loaded at RB. This week he gets the Rams and you pretty much know what to expect. Another solid game.
WRs
Antonio Bryant vs. Lions: The Lions are bad and Bryant has been a nice surprise for owners this year. With Earnest Graham out, the Bucs will rely on the passing game more which means more passes for Bryant.
Steve Smith vs. Atlanta: Smith has a good history against the Falcons and has struggled recently. One would expect that the Panthers will make it a focal point to get him the ball. Expect him to produce top fantasy WR numbers this week.
Players with Unfavorable Match-ups in Week 12:
QBs
Detroit QB: We aren’t quite sure who will be playing QB for the Lions so I’ll just say don’t start him, whoever it is. The Bucs have the #4 pass defense and the Lions passing game has been terrible with the exception of Calvin Johnson.
Donavan McNabb vs. Ravens: Every fantasy football owner can officially declare themselves smarter then an NFL QB. I would hope most, if not all of you knew a game could end in a tie. Apparently the Eagles “star” QB did not know games can end in ties. That’s like a WR not knowing he needed to get two feet in bounds instead of only one, which is the college rule. McNabb was in the league for three years when there was a tie between the Falcons and Steelers in 2002. Does he not pay attention to league happenings outside of Philly? He’s not a good start based solely on his intelligence level, but because he’s been off and on all year and plays a very good Ravens defense. For everyone’s sanity let’s hope this doesn’t end in a tie.
RBs
Ronnie Brown vs. Patriots: Do you really think that the Patriots will let the Dolphins have any success running the ball this week after that debacle early in the year? The Patriots also had ten days to prepare for this game. I’d have to say Brown belongs on your bench this week unless you have very limited options at RB.
Frank Gore vs. Cowboys: With the exception of the Rams game which should officially be changed to the Steven Jackson game, the Cowboys have been pretty good against the run, especially the past couple games. Now Gore will still get his and have another solid day in PPR formats but don’t expect a repeat of last week’s performance for Gore.
WRs
Jerricho Cotchery vs. Titans: Cotchery has been up and down all year. He scored last week so logic says its Coles’ turn to score if anyone does. The Titans have a very good defense and this is a huge game for both teams.
Chris Chambers vs. Colts: The Colts have been good against the pass and horrible against the run. When your team has LT in the backfield and this matchup you can bet they will feature him. Add that to Chambers sharing some reps with Malcolm Floyd with Gates and Vincent Jackson still figuring into the mix and Chambers becomes a shaky start this week.
Strength of Schedule Rankings: Weeks 12-14
Fantasy owners always need to be looking ahead a couple weeks and see what type of match ups are on horizon for their own players as well as possible acquisitions. It is even more important now than any other time during the season as trade deadlines are rapidly approaching and we are in the most critical part of the regular season.
Rushing Defense
|
TEAM
|
PASS DEF WK 12
|
PASS DEF WK 13
|
PASS DEF WK 14
|
|
49ERS
|
15
|
18
|
4
|
|
BEARS
|
29
|
2
|
20
|
|
BENGALS
|
1
|
3
|
25
|
|
BILLS
|
31
|
16
|
9
|
|
BRONCOS
|
30
|
4
|
31
|
|
BROWNS
|
24
|
25
|
10
|
|
BUCS
|
32
|
19
|
17
|
|
CARDS
|
8
|
11
|
29
|
|
CHARGERS
|
25
|
22
|
30
|
|
CHIEFS
|
18
|
30
|
26
|
|
COLTS
|
14
|
28
|
23
|
|
COWBOYS
|
16
|
21
|
1
|
|
DOLP |